Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
