Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
